When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal finsswirl around excitedly. Now that America’s housing market is ailing,predators have their sights on the country’s credit-card market. Analysts atGoldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagionspreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs ofstrain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off anddelinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectableor more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it hadtaken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partlybecause of weakness among card borrowers.

　　It is tooearly to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. Accordingto Moody’s, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% wasalmost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deteriorationin rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a bigchunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates)would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were gettingworse.

　　The industryalso reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumerspay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities ispretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. DennisMoroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007will end up being 25% higher than last year.

　　Directchannels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-cardmarket certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debtnow that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flowrather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger achange in borrowers’ creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers’ advantage. The incentives forconsumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth lessthan the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repaymentpriorities as a result.

　　Card issuersare also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditionsthan mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering creditlimits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets."We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans,"says Gary Perlin, Capital One’s chief financial officer.

　　If a suddensubprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of asustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contractionin credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face agrimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.

　　1. The authormakes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to_____.

　　[A] makepeople alert to the potential danger

　　[B] attractthe readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

　　[C] makepeople realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

　　[D] make thepassage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

　　2. Rises inthe charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

　　[A] thedeterioration of the subprime mortgage

　　[B] theinadequate ability of card borrowers

　　[C] theinfluence of the technical factors

　　[D] thechange in relevant laws

　　3. Accordingto the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising againbecause_____.

　　[A] there isa change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

　　[B] thecharge-offs and delinquencies are still low

　　[C] theinfluence of the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

　　[D] theoverall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

　　4. Thesubprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

　　[A] the fallof asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

　　[B] thedecrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

　　[C] thedrying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

　　[D] thefalling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

　　5. Accordingto the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

　　[A] a gradualdownward tendency

　　[B] a rapidcollapse

　　[C] asustained trend of lowering price

　　[D] theaccumulation of economic recession

　　文章剖析：

　　這篇文章分析了美國次級抵押貸款危機(jī)可能影響到的信用卡市場。第一段指出信用卡市場已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)疲軟跡象;第二段、第三段通過分析表示信用卡市場危機(jī)并未確定，不需要過于恐慌;第四段指出次級抵押危機(jī)與信用卡市場之間的傳染渠道;第五段指出信用卡規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的優(yōu)勢;第六段指出信用卡市場更趨于經(jīng)歷持續(xù)低迷的情況。

　　詞匯注釋：

　　dorsal finn.[動物]背鰭

　　ailing adj. 景況不佳的，生病的

　　contagion n.傳染, 傳染病, 蔓延

　　charge-off n.損耗

　　delinquencyn. 逾期債款

　　難句突破：

　　(1) There are rises in both the charge-off anddelinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectableor more than 30 days late respectively.

　　[主體句式] There are rises in...

　　[結(jié)構(gòu)分析] 這是一個簡單句，which 引導(dǎo)的非限定性定語從句是修飾前面的the charge-off and delinquency rates;在該定語從句中還有定語從句修飾theshare of balances，在該定語從句中，前半個句子對應(yīng)修飾the charge-off rates，后半個句子是個省略句，對應(yīng)修飾the delinquency rates.

　　[句子譯文] 損耗率和逾期債款率都上升了，這兩個數(shù)據(jù)分別代表收不回來的收支差額的份額和晚了30天的份額。

　　(2) A change in America’s personal-bankruptcylaws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn accountfor a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thuscharge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions forborrowers were getting worse.

　　[主體句式] A change led to an abrupt fall; the number would be rising.

　　[結(jié)構(gòu)分析]這是一個復(fù)雜句，分號將前后兩個句子隔開。前面句子中，賓語帶有which引導(dǎo)的非限定性定語從句;后面句子是帶有方式狀語從句的復(fù)雜句。

　　[句子譯文]2005年美國個人破產(chǎn)法的一個改動使得破產(chǎn)登記急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大規(guī)模的虧損。破產(chǎn)登記數(shù)量(隨之的charge-off率)可以重新上升，不管貸款人的整體狀況是否變得更糟糕了。

　　題目分析：

　　1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant tothe topic in order to _____.1. 背鰭與本文主題無關(guān)，作者提到背鰭是為了_____。

　　[A] make people alert to the potential danger[A] 提醒人們注意潛在的危險(xiǎn)

　　[B] attract the readers’ attention bypresenting an interesting phenomenon[B] 通過描述一個有趣的現(xiàn)象來吸引讀者的眼球

　　[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing asimilar case[C] 通過一個類似的案例讓人們意識到事情的嚴(yán)重性

　　[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge toreaders[D] 通過向讀者傳授新的知識來使得文章更生動

　　[答案]A

　　[難度系數(shù)] ☆☆☆

　　[分析]推理題。文章在首尾都提到了背鰭。開頭提到一旦水中有血，背鰭就會變得興奮起來，接著就提到美國房地產(chǎn)衰退后，捕食者將目光轉(zhuǎn)移到信用卡市場。末尾提到要留心背鰭。可以看出，作者提到背鰭是一種隱喻，意味著危險(xiǎn)，因此選項(xiàng)A 比較符合題意。

　　2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.2.損耗率和逾期債款率的升高意味著_____。

　　[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage[A] 次級抵押貸款惡化

　　[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers[B] 信用卡借貸人還貸能力較弱

　　[C] the influence of the technical factors[C] 技術(shù)因素的影響

　　[D] the change in relevant laws[D] 相關(guān)法律的變化

　　[答案]B

　　[難度系數(shù)] ☆☆

　　[分析] 推理題。文章在第一段提到，信用卡市場的疲軟跡象已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，接著就提到這兩個數(shù)字，損耗率和逾期債款率分別代表無法收回來的收支差額的份額和晚付了30天的份額，接著還舉例說香港匯豐銀行的14億美元費(fèi)用就是部分因?yàn)樾庞每ń杩钊藘斶�能力較弱。因此，這兩項(xiàng)升高表明信用卡市場出現(xiàn)問題。A不符合;B，是信用卡市場問題;CD在第二段提到，是引起這兩項(xiàng)升高的部分原因所在。因此，答案為B。

　　3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcyfillings would be rising again because_____.3. 根據(jù)第三段，破產(chǎn)申請數(shù)量會再次增多是因?yàn)開____。

　　[A] there is a change in America’spersonal-bankruptcy laws[A] 美國個人破產(chǎn)法發(fā)生了變化

　　[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low[B] 損耗率和逾期債款率還很低

　　[C] the influence of the change in the personal-bankruptcy laws hasbeen digested[C] 個人貸款法律變化的影響已經(jīng)被消化了

　　[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse[D] 貸款人整體的情形趨于糟糕

　　[答案]C

　　[難度系數(shù)] ☆☆☆

　　[分析] 推理題。文章第三段最后提到不管貸款人整體的情況是否變壞，破產(chǎn)申請數(shù)量都會再次增多。前面又提到是因?yàn)?005年美國個人破產(chǎn)法有一定變化，破產(chǎn)申請才急劇降低，而后引發(fā)了信用卡市場的一些問題。因此，這項(xiàng)法律實(shí)行一段時(shí)間后，大家已經(jīng)消化了這個變化，趨勢又會恢復(fù)正常。答案C最為貼切。

　　4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market inthat_____.4. 次級抵押貸款危機(jī)影響信用卡市場在于_____。

　　[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’creditworthiness[A]資產(chǎn)價(jià)值的降低影響了信用卡借款人的信用度

　　[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of thecard debt[B]抵押支付的減少導(dǎo)致了信用卡貸款的增加。

　　[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectivesto repay the card debt[C]家庭資產(chǎn)貸款的衰竭激發(fā)消費(fèi)者償還信用卡貸款的積極性。

　　[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher[D]房屋價(jià)格的下降使得信用卡貸款增加了更多。

　　[答案]C

　　[難度系數(shù)] ☆☆☆

　　[分析] 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章第四段提到次級抵押貸款危機(jī)和信用卡市場之間有直接感染的通道，因?yàn)榧彝ベY產(chǎn)貸款衰竭，借款人就更愿意把信用卡的貸款償還清;而且因?yàn)榉课莸膬r(jià)格比貸款還低，大家就不愿意還房屋抵押貸款，因此信用卡貸款償還在償還方面位居前列。選項(xiàng)中C符合這種推理，為正確答案。

　　5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likelybe threatened by_____.5. 依作者來看，信用卡市場更可能受到_____的威脅。

　　[A] a gradual downward tendency[A] 緩慢的衰退趨勢

　　[B] a rapid collapse[B] 快速的崩潰

　　[C] a sustained trend of lowering prices[C] 價(jià)格持續(xù)走低

　　[D] the accumulation of economic recession[D] 經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退日趨嚴(yán)重

　　[答案]A

　　[難度系數(shù)] ☆☆☆

　　[分析] 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章最后一段指出，次級抵押貸款式的突然垮臺可能不會出現(xiàn)在信用卡市場，更容易出現(xiàn)的是一種持續(xù)不斷的低迷。因此，信用卡市場更可能受到這種緩慢的低迷趨勢的影響。答案A最為符合題意。

　　參考譯文：

　　如果水中有血的話，那么自然地背鰭就會興奮地游來游去�，F(xiàn)在美國的房產(chǎn)市場景況不佳，掠奪者就把目光轉(zhuǎn)向了這個國家的信用卡體系。 GoldmanSachs的分析師們認(rèn)為如果這種趨勢從次級抵押擴(kuò)散到消費(fèi)者信用的其他形式的話，那么信用卡損失可能要達(dá)到990億美元。目前這種趨緊的跡象已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。損耗率和逾期債款率都上升了，這兩個數(shù)據(jù)分別代表收不回來的收支差額的份額和晚了30天的份額。匯豐銀行上個月宣布在美國消費(fèi)者金融行業(yè)的抵押款為14億美元，部分原因就在于信用卡貸款人的弱勢。

　　但現(xiàn)在恐慌還為時(shí)尚早。Chargeoffs和逾期債款率還不是很高。據(jù)一家評估機(jī)構(gòu)Moody’s估算，第三季度3.89%的逾期債款率比歷史平均值還低整整一個百分點(diǎn)。比率變差部分是由于技術(shù)原因。2005年美國個人破產(chǎn)法的一個改動使得破產(chǎn)登記急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大規(guī)模的虧損。破產(chǎn)登記數(shù)量(隨之的chargeoff率)可以重新上升，不管貸款人的整體狀況是否變得更糟糕了。

　　該行業(yè)還報(bào)告了真正的支付率，就是表示有多少貸款消費(fèi)者每個月還清貸款了。盡管在其他結(jié)構(gòu)性金融部分出現(xiàn)了癱瘓，但是對信用卡負(fù)債支持的有價(jià)證券信心還是堅(jiān)定的。一家研究機(jī)構(gòu)TowerGroup的工作人員Dennis Moroney 預(yù)計(jì)2007年發(fā)行數(shù)量最后將比去年高出25%。

　　次級抵押危機(jī)和信用卡市場之間存在直接的傳染通道，既然家庭資產(chǎn)貸款就衰竭了，消費(fèi)者更傾向于將信用卡的貸款貸滿。但是信用卡發(fā)行人看到的是現(xiàn)金流動而不是資產(chǎn)價(jià)值，因此房產(chǎn)價(jià)格的下降并不一定會帶來貸款人信用度的改變，甚至?xí)�有利于發(fā)行人。如果消費(fèi)者的財(cái)產(chǎn)還沒有貸款的金額高，那么消費(fèi)者一直支付抵押貸款的動機(jī)就會削弱，最后信用卡貸款就會成為償還款項(xiàng)的最首位。

　　信用卡發(fā)行人也可以在遇到更為嚴(yán)峻的情況時(shí)，通過改變利率或信用額度，比房屋抵押借款人作出反應(yīng)更快、更靈活些。這在理論上可以降低資產(chǎn)快速重新定價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。"我們不希望有天一睜開眼就得全部重新估算貸款，"Capital One的首席金融官員Gary Perlin這樣說。

　　如果在信用卡市場中那種次級抵押式的突如其來的徹底崩潰是不可能的話，那么持續(xù)低迷的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是更為真實(shí)的。如果房產(chǎn)低價(jià)格和信貸緊縮將美國引致衰退，那么該行業(yè)將會面臨更慘淡的未來。時(shí)刻留心那些背鰭吧。