翻譯資格考試高級(jí)口譯練習(xí)題：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

　　漢譯英

　　2016年，在世界各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露的情況下，中國(guó)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)7.8%，居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格漲幅回落到2.6%。2012年全年糧食產(chǎn)量達(dá)到589570000噸，實(shí)現(xiàn)新中國(guó)成立以來(lái)第二次連續(xù)九年增長(zhǎng)，連續(xù)六年糧食產(chǎn)量超過(guò)五億噸。

　　中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，正中紅心。增長(zhǎng)率當(dāng)真是年7%?

　　一切似乎完美得難以置信。中國(guó)政府今年年初制定了“約7%”的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo);像是一向?yàn)榱嘶貞?yīng)共產(chǎn)黨的需求，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度準(zhǔn)確命中了7%的目標(biāo)。這暗合了某些懷疑論調(diào)。

　　第一季度的確看著可疑。工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)率降至金融危機(jī)后的最低點(diǎn);房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)這一經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱也嚴(yán)重垮塌。中國(guó)發(fā)布的第一季度實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率(即考慮通貨膨脹后的增長(zhǎng)率)為同比增長(zhǎng)7%，但名義增長(zhǎng)率僅為5.8%。使得真實(shí)增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到更高水平的唯一途徑是GDP平減指數(shù)(通貨膨脹衡量指標(biāo))調(diào)整為-1.1%。

　　這意味著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受了大范圍通貨緊縮，但離奇的是與此同時(shí)，消費(fèi)價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)大于1%。凱投宏觀的劉暢和馬克·威廉姆斯測(cè)算，如果GDP平減指數(shù)能更加精確，那么第一季度的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率將會(huì)再低一至二個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　The data for the second quarter are more credible. In nominal terms, growth rebounded strongly to 7.1%. The corollary is that the GDP deflator is now 0.1%, a reading that is much more consistent with rising consumer prices and falling producer prices.

　　第二季度的數(shù)據(jù)則更為可信。名義增長(zhǎng)率強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈至7.1%。其必然結(jié)果是GDP平減指數(shù)現(xiàn)已達(dá)到0.1%，表現(xiàn)得與增長(zhǎng)的消費(fèi)價(jià)格和下跌的生產(chǎn)價(jià)格更為一致。

　　但篡改痕跡仍然存在：國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局將2014年第二季度的環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)率從2%改為1.9%，且未對(duì)此做出任何解釋。這種降低比較基數(shù)的行為無(wú)疑是對(duì)今年第二季度數(shù)據(jù)的美化。但這影響不大，大概只是零點(diǎn)幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)而已。

　　此外，二季度中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)率的來(lái)源比一季度要來(lái)的更加明朗。投資雖持續(xù)放緩，服務(wù)業(yè)卻加速上升。

　　二季度工業(yè)同比增長(zhǎng)了5.9%，低于一季度的6.4%。與之相反，服務(wù)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)率從一季度的7.9%躍至8.9%。自從服務(wù)業(yè)占GDP比重大于工業(yè)之后，這就顯得尤為重要。這種服務(wù)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)不太可能持續(xù)。

　　它在很大程度上來(lái)源于股市飆升時(shí)促進(jìn)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)的繁榮。但在股價(jià)驟降之后，近幾周，原先的助力恐怕就成了累贅。然而這是暫時(shí)的，畢竟這一場(chǎng)金融盛況并不是中國(guó)的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家編造出來(lái)的。

　　金融體系運(yùn)行穩(wěn)健，銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵御能力持續(xù)增強(qiáng)，資本充足率從2007年底的8.4%提升到去年底的13.3%，不良貸款率由6.1%下降到0.95%。堅(jiān)持搞好房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控不動(dòng)搖，遏制了房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲勢(shì)頭。

　　參考譯文

　　Despite the slowdown of economic growth in the world's major economies and the manifestation of various risks, China's GDP grew by 7.8 percent in 2012 and the rise in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell back to 2.6 percent. China's annual grain output in 2012 reached 589.57 million tons, registering the second nine-year consecutive growth since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, topping the 500-million-ton mark for six years in a row.

　　Finance and economics: China's economic data, Right on target. Is growth really 7% a year?

　　It all seems a little too perfect to be true. The Chinese government set a growth target of “about 7%” this year; the economy, ever responsive to the Communist Party's needs, has hit exactly that number for two quarters in a row. Cue a chorus of skepticism.

　　The first quarter did look suspicious. Growth in industrial production was the weakest since the depths of the financial crisis; the property market, a pillar of the economy, crumbled. China reported real growth (ie, after accounting for inflation) of 7% year on year in the first quarter, but nominal growth of just 5.8%. The only way to arrive at the higher real figure was to put the GDP deflator, a measure of inflation, at -1.1%.

　　That implied the economy suffered broad-based deflation, a bizarre claim given that consumer prices rose by more than 1% at the same time. Had the GDP deflator been more accurate, Chang Liu and Mark Williams of Capital Economics reckon, real growth in the first quarter would have been one or two percentage points lower.

　　There were signs of some tampering: without explanation, the national bureau of statistics cut the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the second quarter of 2014 to 1.9% from 2%. That doubtless flattered the data for the second quarter of this year by lowering the base for comparison. But the impact is small: a few tenths of a percentage point, perhaps.

　　What is more, the sources of Chinese growth in the second quarter were less mysterious than in the first. Although investment continued to slow, services accelerated.

　　Industry grew by 5.9% year on year in the second quarter, down from 6.4% in the first quarter. In contrast, services jumped to 8.9% growth from 7.9% in the first quarter. That matters since services now account for a larger share of Chinese GDP than industry. This acceleration in services is unlikely to last.

　　It derives to a large extent from the soaring stock market, which boosted financial firms. That lift has presumably become a drag in recent weeks as share prices have dived. Transient as it was, however, China's statisticians did not invent the financial boom.

　　The financial system functioned soundly. The banking sector became better able to avert risks. Its capital adequacy rate increased from 8.4% at the end of 2007 to 13.3% by the end of last year, and its non-performing loans dropped from 6.1% to 0.95%. We kept a firm grip on the real estate market and kept housing prices from rising too quickly.