改裝上路 Pimp the ride

　　How to save a sputtering industry

　　如何拯救一個熄火的行業(yè)

　　EVEN BEFORE the recession, investors weredeeply pessimistic about the car industry. Sitting on $1.3trn-worth of legacyinvestments in factories that rely on a technology that ought to becomeobsolete—the internal-combustion engine—the likes of Ford, Renault andVolkswagen don’t exactly look well positioned for the 21st century. Now, withcar sales collapsing, a dinosaur business that employs 10m people directlyfaces a moment of truth. Long synonymous with hubris and the inept allocationof capital, it needs to look to the future.

　　在本次衰退發(fā)生之前，投資者就已經對汽車產業(yè)深感悲觀。福特、雷諾和大眾等大型汽車制造商守著工廠里價值高達1.3萬億美元的老舊投資遲遲沒有行動，而這些投資倚賴的內燃機技術快要被淘汰了。看起來它們并沒有完全為21世紀做好準備。如今隨著汽車銷量暴跌，這個雇用了一千萬人的龐大行業(yè)要直面它的關鍵時刻。長久以來它已經成了傲慢和資本不當配置的代名詞。現在，它需要放眼未來。

　　Executives say they are better placed todaythan in 2008-09, when General Motors and others received bail-outs. Most firmshave more cash and bigger margins. But this logic gets them only so far.Production in Europe and North America is now 50-70% lower than a year ago. Carfirms have high fixed costs, so when they run below capacity they lose moneyfast. The top eight Western carmakers could burn over $50bn of cash thisquarter, reckons Jefferies, a bank. At that rate, they may run out of money bythe end of the year.

　　高管們表示，與2008年至2009年通用汽車等公司接受紓困時相比，他們現在的處境要好一些。大多數公司有著更多現金和更豐厚的利潤。但也僅此而已了。歐洲和北美的產量比一年前下降了50%至70%。汽車制造商的固定成本很高，所以在非滿負荷運行時就是在快速虧錢。投行杰富瑞(Jefferies)估計，西方最大的八家汽車制造商本季度可能要燒掉500多億美元現金。照這個速度，到今年年底它們可能就會耗盡資金。

　　There are other dangers. As recessionbites, people may default on car loans, many of which are owed to carmakers’finance arms. The value of second-hand cars is dropping, harming these financearms through their leasing operations. There may be a permanent fall incommuting, as more people work from home—road-passenger numbers in China arestill 57% below their pre-covid level. This prospect helps explain why oilprices have collapsed. Investors are jumpy—on April 17th Ford raised $8bn ofdebt at painful interest rates of 8.5-9.6%. The only firm that commands theirconfidence is Tesla, an electric-car specialist, whose shares are up by 64%this year.

　　還有其他危險。受衰退的影響，人們可能會拖欠汽車貸款，其中許多是由汽車制造商的金融部門發(fā)放的。二手車的價值正在下降，這也損害了這些經營租賃業(yè)務的金融部門。隨著更多人在家工作，通勤規(guī)模的縮小可能會是永久性的，比如中國的道路旅客數量就仍比疫情之前低57%。這種前景有助于解釋油價為何暴跌。投資者焦慮不安，以至于福特在4月17日要以高到“肉痛”的利率——8.5%至9.6%——發(fā)行80億美元的債券。唯一能贏得投資者信心的公司是專做電動汽車的特斯拉，它的股票今年上漲了64%。

　　Given its carbon footprint, isn’t there anargument for the creative destruction of the car industry? If only it were thatsimple. Millions of jobs are at risk and the big firms account for about 60% ofthe industry’s investment, a rising share of which is, belatedly, going intogreen technologies. Adaptation would be far preferable to extinction. And yetthere is a risk that government aid ossifies car firms before they havemodernised. State “cash for clunkers” subsidies—which are on the menu inGermany—could encourage consumers to buy dirty, internal-combustion-enginecars. On March 31st America watered down emissions standards in order to helpDetroit. Subsidies for idling workers help in the short run, but if they go onfor long they risk preventing firms from shifting resources from old to newtechnologies.

　　考慮到它留下的碳足跡，難道沒有理由對汽車產業(yè)展開創(chuàng)造性破壞?要是事情有那么簡單就好了。數以百萬計的工作崗位岌岌可危，而大企業(yè)占到這個行業(yè)投資的60%左右，其中越來越高的比例正投入到綠色技術上——盡管已經有些晚了。調適要比滅絕好得多。然而，政府的援助可能會讓汽車制造商在完成現代化改造之前就陷入僵化。德國正在考慮的“舊車換現金”計劃可能會鼓勵消費者購買污染嚴重的內燃機汽車。3月31日，為援助底特律，美國放寬了排放標準。補貼待崗工人在短期內會有幫助，但如果補貼持續(xù)太久，就有可能阻礙企業(yè)把資源從老舊的技術轉移到新技術上。

　　The industry should take control of its ownfate. Car firms need to be pioneers in operating factories under new healthprotocols, from redesigning the choreography of assembly lines to providinghealth tests for workers. Big Western firms are starting to re-open someplants. This won’t be lucrative, but it will stem short-term losses.

　　汽車產業(yè)應該掌控自己的命運。從重新設計裝配線布局到為工人提供健康測試，汽車制造商需要成為在新的健康規(guī)程下運營工廠的先行者。西方的大公司已經開始重新啟動一些工廠。這不會帶來豐厚的利潤，但會減少短期虧損。

　　Firms should also avoid slashing investmentindiscriminately, as they did in 2007-09 when capital spending dropped by 29%.Most car firms have two parts, a vast legacy operation and a small,loss-making, fast-growing one making hybrid and fully electric cars. The dangeris that they cut spending on the new bit, slowing the development of batterytechnologies and the launch of new electric models. Better to pare dividends,loss-making foreign adventures and legacy investments.

　　汽車制造商也應該避免不加選擇地大幅削減投資，就像它們在2007年到2009年所做的那樣，當時資本支出下降了29%。大多數汽車制造商由兩部分組成：一個龐大的傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務，以及一個規(guī)模小、虧損，但增長迅速的混合動力和純電動車業(yè)務。危險在于它們選擇削減在新業(yè)務上的開支，減緩研發(fā)電池技術和推出新電動車型。最好是削減股息、虧損的海外業(yè)務和傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務投資。

　　The final priority is consolidation. Toomany mid-sized carmakers are clinging to their global aspirations, despite anumber of mergers in recent years, such as Geely’s purchase of Volvo and FiatChrysler’s planned union with PSA (Fiat’s biggest shareholder owns shares inthe parent company of The Economist). The world still has more than 1,000factories making legacy cars. Renault and Nissan continue their halfway houseof an alliance, which brings more complexity than synergy. Adapt, invest in thefuture and join forces. That is the way to a viable car industry—for theclimate, workers and investors, too.

　　最后一個重點是整合。盡管近年來發(fā)生了不少并購，例如吉利收購沃爾沃、菲亞特克萊斯勒計劃與PSA結盟(菲亞特最大的股東持有《經濟學人》母公司的股份)，但仍有太多中型制造商執(zhí)著于自己的全球抱負。世界上還有一千多家制造傳統(tǒng)汽車的工廠。雷諾和日產維持著一個有限合作的聯盟，這帶來的復雜性超過了協同作用。適應變化，投資未來，聯合力量——這是汽車產業(yè)的生存之路，從氣候、工人和投資者的角度去看都是如此。

　　注：雙語全文源自經濟學人

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