自2002年底起，由于需求拉動，中國“高投入、高能耗、高污染”的產(chǎn)業(yè)投資持續(xù)增加。按照目前的工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，如果高技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值比重提高一個百分點，冶金、化工等高耗能行業(yè)比重相應(yīng)下降一個百分點，萬元GDP能耗可降低1.3個百分點。有關(guān)專家預(yù)計，隨著高能耗企業(yè)技術(shù)改造的加強(qiáng)，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整步伐的加快，未來幾年中國節(jié)能降耗的成效將會更加明顯。但也有人指出,中國的工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程加快將加大城市能源需求的壓力。
未來五年中國城市人均住宅面積會增加將近30%，達(dá)到人均26平方米，農(nóng)村人均住房面積增加大約20%，達(dá)到人均30平方米。每百戶城市家庭的空調(diào)數(shù)將達(dá)81臺，增加1.6倍，百戶家庭的汽車擁有量達(dá)3.4輛，增加5.7倍。這些都會導(dǎo)致水泥、鋼鐵、玻璃等高耗能產(chǎn)品大幅度增長。
另外，按目前的能源消費(fèi)需求，即使在政府關(guān)停和淘汰落后產(chǎn)能，加大高耗能企業(yè)節(jié)能工作的情況下，未來五年，煤炭的消費(fèi)量仍將增加接近10億噸。這些都是對中國達(dá)到降低能耗20%的目標(biāo)的極大挑戰(zhàn)。
Since the end of 2002, driven by growing domestic demand, China kept increasing investment in industries featured high input, high energy consumption and heavy pollution. Given the country’s current industrial structure, a 1.3-percentage-point drop of energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of the GDP can be realized provided that the proportion of added value of hi-tech industries grow by 1 percentage point and that of high energy-consuming sectors like metallurgical and chemical industries falls by 1 percentage point.
Some experts predicted that China would see more distinct results in energy conservation with the strengthening of technological renovation of high energy-consuming enterprises and the quickened pace of industrial restructuring.
However, some people warned that the acceleration of China’s industrialization and urbanization would further increase the pressure on energy supply in urban areas.
Per-capita housing in China’s urban areas is expected to surge nearly 30 percent to 26 square meters in the next five years and that in rural areas will grow 20 percent to 30 square meters. Air-conditioners owned by every 100 urban households will increase 1.6 times to 81 sets and cars owned by every 100 urban households will rise 6.7 times to 3.4 units. This will lead to a robust jump of high energy-consuming products, such as cement, steel, glass and others.
Moreover, China’s coal consumption may approach to 1 billion tons during the next five years, according to China’s current demand for energy, even if the government closes down or eliminates backward productivity and intensifies energy saving of high energy-consuming enterprises. All posing a great challenge to China in its effort to meet the goal of cutting its energy consumption by 20 percent.
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