The economist John Maynard Keynes argued that market behavior could not be rational, or subject to improvement, since our existing knowledge did not provide a sufficient basis for a calculated mathematical expectation of investment returns. I think this observation is particularly true when the object of speculation involves the application of a new technology, such as the Internet.

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　　Modern financial theory attempts to surmount the problem of an unknowable future by suggesting that returns can be predicted by measuring the past volatility of share prices -- shares that exhibit higher volatility are expected to yield greater returns. Yet this assumes the future will be a continuation of the past -- like steering a car by looking in the rear-view mirror. Investors therefore remain heavily dependent on their emotions. The feelings of "greed" and "fear” , that drive markets remain constant throughout the ages.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，市場(chǎng)的行為不可能是理性的，也不可能改進(jìn)，因?yàn)槲覀儸F(xiàn)有的知識(shí)不能為經(jīng)過(guò)精確計(jì)算而得出的投資收益預(yù)期提供充分的依據(jù)。我認(rèn)為在投機(jī)對(duì)象涉及到新技術(shù)的使用時(shí)，例如因特網(wǎng)的使用，凱恩斯的這種看法尤為正確。

　　現(xiàn)代金融理論試圖解決未來(lái)不可預(yù)測(cè)的問(wèn)題。按照現(xiàn)代金融理論，投資收益可以通過(guò)對(duì)股價(jià)以往的波動(dòng)幅度來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)，也就是說(shuō)，股價(jià)波動(dòng)較大的股票可望帶來(lái)較大的回報(bào)。但是這種理論是以未來(lái)是過(guò)去的延續(xù)為前提的，如同看著后視鏡駕駛汽車一樣。所以投資者仍然在 很大程度上憑著自己的情感操作。在任何年代，推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的“貪心”和“擔(dān)心”這兩種心情 總是永恒不變的。

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