Financial crisis

　　金融危機(jī)

　　Into the land of the unknown

　　前途未卜

　　Sep 30th 2008 | LONDON, NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC

　　From Economist.com

　　Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America

　　美國(guó)救市計(jì)劃遭拒后全球市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)混亂

　　Reuters

　　HOW many votes in Congress will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th. Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.

　　最近的金融巨變將改變多少國(guó)會(huì)的選票?這是繼9月29日周一眾議院以228票反對(duì)：205票支持挫敗7000億美元救市計(jì)劃之后，華盛頓正在進(jìn)行的計(jì)算。對(duì)此項(xiàng)救市計(jì)劃，民主黨140票支持：95票反對(duì)，而共和黨則是133票反對(duì)：65票支持。

　　Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills. But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pass. Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points loss. Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depression, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup. The S&P closed 29% below its peak. Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%. The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.

　　銀行家們對(duì)妥協(xié)后的鮑爾森的救市計(jì)劃會(huì)治愈金融系統(tǒng)的疾患不抱幻想。但是他們中的大多數(shù)認(rèn)為該救市計(jì)劃是往正確的方向前進(jìn)，并希望它能夠得以通過。救市計(jì)劃遭拒引起股市重挫。道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)下跌7%，創(chuàng)歷史最大點(diǎn)數(shù)跌幅。或許，對(duì)一個(gè)有著滑向蕭條之危險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)股票里收盤唯一上漲的一只股票是 美國(guó)湯品生產(chǎn)商金寶湯(Campbell’s Soup)就是再平常不過的事情了。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)比其歷史峰值跌29%收盤。iPhone開發(fā)者蘋果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市場(chǎng)對(duì)消費(fèi)者需求 將會(huì)萎縮的恐慌。美國(guó)股市收盤后,亞洲股市還在下挫，歐洲股市的下挫則延續(xù)到周二早晨。

　　Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point. Banks grew even less willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk. Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt issued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like. In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.

　　更糟的是，已經(jīng)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)不良的信貸市場(chǎng)瀕臨崩潰。周一，銀行更為不愿互相拆借，一有風(fēng) 吹草動(dòng)，貨幣基金就出逃任何投資項(xiàng)目。一些公司苦苦掙扎于結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)商業(yè)票據(jù)，發(fā)行短期債券來籌措流動(dòng)資金，支付工資和其他費(fèi)用。在維持貨幣市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性的努力 中，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)把一項(xiàng)對(duì)銀行的關(guān)鍵貸款供應(yīng)規(guī)模翻番，達(dá)到3000億美元，并且延伸了與其他央行關(guān)于它們?yōu)樵诤Ｍ饨?jīng)營(yíng)的美國(guó)的銀行注資的協(xié)議。

　　These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts. But many banks are now assumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent. Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail. And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators. The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.

　　這些空前的注資舉措目的在于緩解憂慮，這種憂慮是：孱弱的參與者在同業(yè)拆借市場(chǎng)上 無能力償還其所欠債務(wù)。但是現(xiàn)在許多銀行被認(rèn)為不僅僅是流動(dòng)性差，而且是無償付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家儲(chǔ)蓄銀行——華盛頓互惠銀行 (Washington Mutual)破產(chǎn)，成為美國(guó)有史以來最大的倒閉銀行。周一花旗集團(tuán)同意購(gòu)買大部分美聯(lián)(Wachovia)資產(chǎn)，美聯(lián)是一家比華盛頓互惠銀行規(guī)模更大的 銀行，此項(xiàng)交易由監(jiān)管方撮合。金融危機(jī)的痛楚在歐洲也急劇增強(qiáng)。

　　The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congress to approve an unusually aggressive and early fiscal intervention. (It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s). But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives. “On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week. It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a mess in Wall Street.

　　對(duì)喬治?布什，財(cái)長(zhǎng)漢克?保爾森，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出席本?伯南克而言，否決票是一大打擊。他 們?cè)鴮?duì)不遏制危機(jī)的后果給出警告，寄希望于說服國(guó)會(huì)通過此項(xiàng)非比一般地積極地也是早期地財(cái)政干預(yù)。(上世紀(jì)80年代，對(duì)美國(guó)儲(chǔ)蓄和貸款銀行普遍破產(chǎn)的一個(gè) 系統(tǒng)化處理耗費(fèi)了許多年)。但是因?yàn)榇舜胃深A(yù)相對(duì)要早，選民們沒有意識(shí)到這場(chǎng)危機(jī)對(duì)他們的生活的重大影響。賓夕法尼亞州民主黨人保羅·坎喬斯基(Paul Kanjorski)上周對(duì)保爾森說道：“周一清晨“““太陽升起，人們趕去上班，他們無法理解華盛頓在恐慌什么�！睂�(duì)選民們來說，認(rèn)同這7000億美元——他們納的稅被浪費(fèi)在華爾街的廢物上倒是更為輕而易舉的事情。

　　Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties. But polls showed that voters were split; constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill. Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote; the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed. (Passage in the Senate is considered less problematic.) But it should not be taken for granted. Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election. Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.

　　政黨領(lǐng)袖們很大程度上同意對(duì)此次金融危機(jī)的診斷，連兩黨的總統(tǒng)候選人也贊同。但是民調(diào)顯示了選民立場(chǎng)的分裂：反對(duì)救市方案的游說電話和郵件紛沓至來。執(zhí)政官員和政黨領(lǐng)袖重新回到此項(xiàng)工作上來，試圖使至少12個(gè)反對(duì)成員改弦易轍;華盛頓和華爾街都預(yù)計(jì)他們能夠辦到。(在參議院通過問題不大)但這不應(yīng)當(dāng)被看作是他們就欣然接受。倘若對(duì)該方案未加修訂，任何人改變自己原先立場(chǎng)都會(huì)在其再次面臨選舉時(shí)(尋求連任時(shí))受到嚴(yán)苛的批評(píng)。另一方面，任何迎合共和黨的修訂都會(huì)損耗民主黨的支持，反之亦然。

　　“You can’t let one day’s trading dictate public policymaking,” argues Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican and member of the Republican Study Committee, a block of conservative members who led opposition to the bill. “The market’s going to be a factor, but we’re looking at the larger picture.” Recalcitrant Republicans would rather see a programme to sell insurance to banks against mortgage defaults, rather than buying assets from them. The Treasury strongly opposes this approach. But there may be other grounds for compromise, such as relaxing mark-to-market accounting or extending the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee of a bank’s liabilities to more than just the first $100,000 of each customer’s deposits. Other proposals include giving banks more time to deduct mortgage-related operating losses from future taxable profits, letting companies repatriate foreign profits tax-free and improving the tax treatment of losses sustained by banks on their holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.

　　“你不能讓單日交易量來指示公共政策制定,” 科特?蓋瑞特(Scott Garrett)主張，他是新澤西州共和黨人，也是共和黨研究委員會(huì)的成員，這個(gè)委員會(huì)由一批領(lǐng)導(dǎo)反對(duì)此項(xiàng)救市方案的保守人士組成�！笆袌�(chǎng)將是一個(gè)主要問 題，但是我們著眼于全局。”執(zhí)拗的共和黨人寧愿看到一個(gè)對(duì)銀行出售保險(xiǎn)以抵御抵押違約損失的計(jì)劃，也不愿意從銀行手里收購(gòu)資產(chǎn)。財(cái)政部強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)這種方法。 但是或許有其他妥協(xié)的余地，比如放松按市價(jià)調(diào)整的會(huì)計(jì)或者提高美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司對(duì)銀行債務(wù)的擔(dān)保，突破原先的每個(gè)客戶存款擔(dān)保10萬美元的上限。其他建議包括給銀行更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間從未來的應(yīng)稅收入中扣除目前抵押貸款業(yè)務(wù)的相關(guān)損失;讓公司得以免稅把在國(guó)外所得利潤(rùn)存回美國(guó);并且改善在持有房地美和房利美的股票方面，銀行所蒙受的損失的稅收待遇。

　　For their part, more Democrats might back the proposal if the administration also agreed to more fiscal stimulus, in particular public-works spending, or taking any profits on the TARP to low-income housing. A deal may be possible, but time is short: legislators are itching to return to their districts to campaign, and investors’ appetite for risk is ebbing fast. The House is not expected to reconvene before Thursday, to accommodate the Jewish new year.

　　從民主黨這邊來看，如果執(zhí)政當(dāng)局還同意更多的財(cái)政刺激，特別是公共項(xiàng)目開銷或是從 問題資產(chǎn)救援計(jì)劃(TARP)中提取任何利潤(rùn)給低收入住房的話，或許會(huì)有更多民主黨成員支持這項(xiàng)救市提議。協(xié)議達(dá)成或許可能，但時(shí)間緊迫：立法者(議員 們)急于返回其選區(qū)參加競(jìng)選，同時(shí)投資者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)胃口迅速萎縮。周二之前眾議院不可能重新召集議事，因?yàn)檫@期間包括了猶太新年日。(譯者注：很多議員要趕回 去過節(jié))

　　The House vote also represented a stinging rejection of John McCain, the Republican nominee. Mr McCain suspended his campaign last week for two days, citing the financial crisis, and flew to Washington, DC, to help craft a solution to it. His main task was to persuade reluctant House Republicans to back their own president. In the event they voted against the deal made by their own leadership by two to one. The humiliation meted out to Mr McCain is intense.

　　眾議院的選票也代表了一種對(duì)共和黨候選人約翰?麥凱恩的無情拒絕。麥凱恩先生上周 稱是為金融危機(jī)而暫停了兩天的競(jìng)選，并且親自飛往華盛頓，來幫助達(dá)成一個(gè)針對(duì)救市計(jì)劃的解決方案。他的主要任務(wù)是說服執(zhí)拗的共和黨人來支持他們共和黨自己 的總統(tǒng)。結(jié)果，他們以2比1投票反對(duì)他們自己的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)階層制定的計(jì)劃。麥凱恩先生蒙受的羞辱是相當(dāng)強(qiáng)烈的。

　　Amid the efforts to put the deal back together, some small hope remains that not all is lost. What is unlikely to help is the atmosphere of bitterness and recrimination that is pervading Capitol Hill. With some justification, the Democrats are aggrieved to find that they supported Mr Bush’s bill while his own party did not. But the Republicans blame the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, for making a stupidly partisan speech shortly before the vote in which she poured scorn on the Republicans she is trying to court. A lot of bridges will have to be built in a short span of time.

　　使這項(xiàng)救市方案達(dá)成還存一線希望。譏諷的氛圍和遍布國(guó)會(huì)的互相指責(zé)是于是無補(bǔ)的。情有可原，民主黨會(huì)憤憤不平，因?yàn)樗麄儼l(fā)現(xiàn)自己支持布什的救市方案而布什自己的共和黨卻反對(duì)。但是共和黨人譴責(zé)身為民主黨的眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希-佩羅西，指責(zé)她在投票開始前幾分鐘發(fā)表了一個(gè)愚蠢的從黨派立場(chǎng)出發(fā)的講話，在講話中她譏諷她要試圖拉攏說服的共和黨人。短時(shí)間內(nèi)，各方間必須要建立大量溝通。

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