There is hope 希望仍在

　　Africa

　　There is hope Oct 9th 2008

　　From The Economist print edition

　　Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive 天災(zāi)人禍不斷 局勢(shì)有望好轉(zhuǎn)

　　UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it

　　could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic

　　climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.

　　經(jīng)過了持續(xù)幾周的全球動(dòng)亂，致力于推動(dòng)非洲發(fā)展的改革者們終于可以略展笑顏。政治，經(jīng)濟(jì)上40多年的停滯不前曾使非洲8億的人民的人們陷入貧窮和黑暗，但最近5年來，48個(gè)撒哈拉以南的非洲國家正以5%的總體速率飛速發(fā)展。如果他們能使這一速率維持甚至略有提高，非洲將有望擺脫貧困。現(xiàn)今日用品價(jià)格有望下調(diào)，世界市場(chǎng)將必然走向萎縮，相應(yīng)地，西方的援助也會(huì)趨于穩(wěn)定，甚至有所下降。盡管與其他地方相比，非洲地區(qū)相對(duì)獨(dú)立于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，卻也難免殃及池魚�！盁o望的陸地”本報(bào)從前曾這樣過于苛刻地描述過這片土地。但也許，現(xiàn)實(shí)并非如此糟糕，以至于會(huì)讓許多持悲觀態(tài)度的人會(huì)感到不解，并且不時(shí)顯現(xiàn)的復(fù)蘇跡象也不只是日用品價(jià)格飆升所帶來的表面繁榮，這一切昭示著一個(gè)切切實(shí)實(shí)的開端。盡管不良政權(quán)和多變氣候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起

　　A long way to go 長(zhǎng)路漫漫

　　Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea;

　　now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.

　　悲觀主義者仍可言之鑿鑿。過往的日子里，特別是日用品價(jià)格飆升之際，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)多是曇花一現(xiàn)。但一旦價(jià)格回落，這種漲勢(shì)則不堪一擊。然而，非洲近來為數(shù)不多的成功例子則與先前災(zāi)難歷史形成鮮明對(duì)比。加納，是一個(gè)人們樂于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年這個(gè)國家宣布獨(dú)立之時(shí)，它的富足程度就可比南韓，而現(xiàn)今，盡管近期經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢(shì)略有反彈，但同比于韓國，國民人均財(cái)富仍縮水了30倍。另外幾個(gè)國家的所謂“希望”，例如莫桑比克，盧旺達(dá)，烏干達(dá)，也只是與過往苦難形成的鮮明對(duì)比。實(shí)際上，唯一的一個(gè)保有政治經(jīng)濟(jì)上強(qiáng)有力持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的國家是博茨瓦納。

　　Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.

　　很多基本指標(biāo)仍不容樂觀。非洲的人均壽命仍在下降，很大一部分歸因于艾滋病，這一疾病60%的受害者都來自非洲。一份最新的世界銀行報(bào)表對(duì)于非洲的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭能否持續(xù)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。報(bào)表顯示，高于平均速度的大部分增長(zhǎng)只是得益于8個(gè)撒哈拉以南的產(chǎn)油國由于石油產(chǎn)出所帶來的國民收入。三分之一的非洲國家(目前為止占所有大洲的最高比例)陷于內(nèi)戰(zhàn)和暴動(dòng)的漩渦。兩個(gè)最突出的例子，蘇丹和剛果，被長(zhǎng)年的戰(zhàn)亂和暴政摧毀。津巴布韋，這個(gè)曾被稱為南非寶石的地方，盡管最近達(dá)成一項(xiàng)致力于建立國家統(tǒng)一政府的協(xié)定，如今卻也成了一場(chǎng)噩夢(mèng)。這份世界銀行的報(bào)表對(duì)于非洲標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的政府管理表示出悲觀態(tài)度。

　　Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.

　　但也許更令人擔(dān)憂的是，大約在去年，非洲大陸的三個(gè)巨頭都遭遇了嚴(yán)重倒退。自從1999年這個(gè)國家轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槲墓俳y(tǒng)治以來，尼日利亞的大選遭遇了最嚴(yán)重的舞弊�？夏醽啠�作為東非的軸心，在一次富有爭(zhēng)議的選舉之后經(jīng)歷了種族迫害。在各個(gè)方面作為撒哈拉以南領(lǐng)軍國家的南非，國民生產(chǎn)總值占據(jù)整個(gè)GDP的三分之一，理應(yīng)為其他非洲國家樹立包容榜樣，其政府卻接近獨(dú)裁的邊緣。最近反對(duì)外國黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底層南非人民仍然面對(duì)著重重貧困。

　　All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely

　　accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.

　　與此同時(shí)，改革勢(shì)頭也更加明朗。政治自由盡管有待完善，卻比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲國家現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)對(duì)總統(tǒng)任期加以限制。至少14位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人被迫下野。多黨制盡管情勢(shì)緊張，卻也普及更廣。政治義務(wù)和選擇權(quán)的觀念更加深入人心。由于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的部分原因，媒體變得更加活躍。由Mo Ibrahim(出生于蘇丹的電信巨頭)資助設(shè)立的最新的非洲行政指數(shù)，表明了一種普遍的進(jìn)步。

　　The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.

　　非洲社會(huì)主義(不靠譜的第三種途徑)紅字下的國家統(tǒng)治假設(shè)已被證明是一堆垃圾。大多數(shù)地方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人相信，盡管現(xiàn)在看起來局勢(shì)不定，非洲繁榮離不開世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。手機(jī)革命大大幫助了非洲人民，特別是貧困的農(nóng)民和商人。銀行系統(tǒng)正處于現(xiàn)代化，信貸業(yè)務(wù)也對(duì)新興的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)更加開放。世界各地商人的投資力度也不斷加強(qiáng)，尤其是對(duì)治理較好的非洲國家。即使是那些自然資源匱乏的國家增長(zhǎng)速度也在加快。中國進(jìn)軍非洲市場(chǎng)，總的來說，利大于弊。

　　Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.

　　同樣由世行聯(lián)合發(fā)起的另一項(xiàng)報(bào)告，則對(duì)“華盛頓共識(shí)”頗有微詞，“共識(shí)”確信，純粹的自由市場(chǎng)是一劑萬能藥，非洲應(yīng)當(dāng)實(shí)行貿(mào)易開放，加強(qiáng)財(cái)政緊縮，清償國家。然而針對(duì)非洲國家的不同情況，不能一以概之，比如，富裕國家傾向于提供具有時(shí)限的貿(mào)易優(yōu)先權(quán)。

　　Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸著石頭過河

　　Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.

　　其他的方法也會(huì)帶來裨益。美洲的“非洲成長(zhǎng)與機(jī)會(huì)2000年法案”，通過下調(diào)美洲關(guān)稅刺激了非洲出口。另一個(gè)方案是“采掘行業(yè)透明度行動(dòng)計(jì)劃”，這是一項(xiàng)已有12個(gè)非洲國家參與的自愿履行的規(guī)則，政府與國外公司將公開交易，與富產(chǎn)礦產(chǎn)的剛果形成鮮明對(duì)比(該國可笑地宣稱2006年的礦產(chǎn)收入只有$86,000。對(duì)于輕工業(yè)國家，國家儲(chǔ)備基金的建立也不失為一個(gè)好主意。對(duì)于農(nóng)業(yè)方面，將土地定位個(gè)人名下也是一個(gè)好辦法。在一片土地共有的大陸上，似乎很難成事�，F(xiàn)實(shí)總是會(huì)擊敗教條。

　　So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.

　　所以非洲現(xiàn)在有一個(gè)擺脫貧困陷阱的難得機(jī)會(huì)。即使對(duì)于一個(gè)誠信高效的政府，這一切仍是不易，更不要說，大多數(shù)政府并非如此。算上氣候，疾病，文盲，種族分化種種不利，政府腐敗仍是最大的弊端。但總體的消息還是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的國家也有他們的煩惱，但他們絕不會(huì)放棄幫助貧困國家自力更生的努力。

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