A Changed Global Reality 世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局新變化

　　Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. 對(duì)于新世紀(jì)，我們得這樣說(shuō)：我們生活在一個(gè)有趣的時(shí)代。差不多兩年半之前，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入了20世紀(jì)30年代經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期以來(lái)最慘重的低迷狀態(tài)。世界貿(mào)易進(jìn)程大幅放緩。失業(yè)隊(duì)伍也越來(lái)越快，這在舊工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系表現(xiàn)尤為突出。原來(lái)堅(jiān)如磐石的金融機(jī)構(gòu)也消失了，似乎還不如老套的魔術(shù)師變的花束看起來(lái)真實(shí)。

　　Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. 考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退幅度如此的跨時(shí)代，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程會(huì)很慢也是理所當(dāng)然的，對(duì)此我們不應(yīng)該感到吃驚。事實(shí)也正如我們所料，復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程確實(shí)很慢。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英乘直升飛機(jī)、大巴、小汽車(chē)或是火車(chē)前往達(dá)沃斯參加一年一度的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇會(huì)議，此次會(huì)議上，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己開(kāi)始接受一些聞所未聞的事情。

　　The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. 當(dāng)今的情況是這樣的。自工業(yè)革命以來(lái)的二百多年間，世界出現(xiàn)了兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。一個(gè)支配著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和貿(mào)易，累積了大量財(cái)富。另一個(gè)在政治上主要受前者的控制，在經(jīng)濟(jì)上一直處于貧窮狀態(tài)并且在技術(shù)上存在依賴(lài)性。兩者的鴻亙古存在。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家----美國(guó)、加拿大、西歐、澳大利亞、新西蘭、日本及亞洲四小龍，以世界總?cè)丝诘?6%輸出著世界將近70%的產(chǎn)品。

　　But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. 世界形勢(shì)正發(fā)生著變化。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的富人們努力重新刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并維持社會(huì)福利的時(shí)候，曾經(jīng)的窮人們卻已經(jīng)擺脫了經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。像中國(guó)和印度這樣大的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)找到了國(guó)內(nèi)需求的新來(lái)源。非洲的部分地區(qū)也正吸引著對(duì)他們真正感興趣的投資者�？傊�，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的力量撐起了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。據(jù)世界銀行估計(jì)，2010年，中低收入國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)約占世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一半(46%)。

　　A Sigh of Relief 經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖，令人欣慰

　　In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. 從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看來(lái)，這真的是個(gè)好消息。隨著幾十億的貧苦人們開(kāi)始變得富有起來(lái)，他們也將能夠支付得起發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人們所擁有過(guò)的享受，而這些享受在富人們眼中僅僅是普通的生活附屬品而已。但是，在慶祝一個(gè)新的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序建立之前，我們必須克服國(guó)與國(guó)之間以及國(guó)家內(nèi)部存在的深層分歧。否則，世界將會(huì)重新陷入以鄰為壑的民粹主義，最終每個(gè)人都淪為乞丐，我們?nèi)晕疵撾x困境。

　　First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. 不過(guò)首先讓我們?cè)u(píng)估一下目前情況�，F(xiàn)在世界的狀況比一年前我們所想象的要好得多。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直害怕發(fā)生的“雙底衰退”也從未出現(xiàn)過(guò)。2008年的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎一直停滯不前，但是現(xiàn)在一些早期跡象表明顧客開(kāi)始消費(fèi)了，銀行也開(kāi)始發(fā)放貸款了，同時(shí)股市也在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條兩年半之后達(dá)到了巔峰狀態(tài)。盡管歐洲一直在一重接一重的主權(quán)外債危機(jī)下茍延殘喘，但是它到目前為止已經(jīng)避免了最糟糕的狀況-----歐元崩潰，歐元崩潰是一種債務(wù)危機(jī)，從希臘和愛(ài)爾蘭這樣小的經(jīng)濟(jì)體流竄到意大利和西班牙這樣大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并且加劇了一些國(guó)家的社會(huì)騷亂，這些國(guó)家在縮減公共預(yù)算的同時(shí)不得不減少薪資。

　　Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year. 聽(tīng)到如此多鼓舞人心的消息(或者至少是沒(méi)有很糟糕的消息)，高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)缀踝兊幂p率起來(lái)，最近他們更新了2011年全球和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)(分別是4.8%和3.4%)。盡管2010年是“令人懷疑的一年”，但是高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們宣稱(chēng)2011年肯定是經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一年，努里爾•盧比尼----美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，這次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的預(yù)言者，認(rèn)為如果一切都順利，并且沒(méi)有更糟糕的事情發(fā)生，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)將近4%。

　　It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light." 有人肯定會(huì)說(shuō)：并不是每個(gè)人都同意這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。吉姆•沃克----香港亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)分析咨詢(xún)公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，預(yù)測(cè)2011年將會(huì)是“清算之年”。沃克談到，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的反彈只是由過(guò)度刺激形成的海市蜃樓。他認(rèn)為美國(guó)將會(huì)落入2010年僥幸躲避過(guò)去的“雙底衰退”之中。即使是不那么悲觀的人也擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有恢復(fù)。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)2011年經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈會(huì)逐漸消失，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也可能會(huì)低于2010年。一月中旬，世界銀行估測(cè)全球GDP增長(zhǎng)將由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶魯大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬•羅奇認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍會(huì)極力從上次經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)和扭曲中脫身。“這真是一次緩慢的后經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)考驗(yàn)。”羅奇說(shuō)道，“我并不準(zhǔn)備給經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)亮綠燈”。

　　The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. 這種謹(jǐn)慎是可以理解的。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，失業(yè)率仍然很高(美國(guó)是9.4%，歐元區(qū)是10.1%)。2008年9月的私營(yíng)部門(mén)債務(wù)危機(jī)到2010年11月已經(jīng)演變?yōu)楣�共部門(mén)危機(jī)。這是由經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)和救助銀行時(shí)所累積的債務(wù)和財(cái)政赤字造成的。